Posted by
John King on Wed, Jun 19, 2013 @ 12:00 AM
On Friday our measure of the strength of the broad market, the momentum of the ETF Universe, had fallen to 80.83% from the mid-90% range four weeks ago. Monday and Tuesday were up double digits on the DJIA and yet the momentum has continued to slide, down 1.56% and registering 79.27% as of the close on June 14. This is normally not a good sign and is worth a cautionary approach for the immediate future.
From time to time, Quacera will be long or short some or all of the securities mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. If this information is used to enter an investment or take a position, it may be impossible to duplicate the actual signal price shown in the report. Prices are subject to change and therefore results will vary from those tracked in the reports.
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report, or recommended by Quacera LLC, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk. Materials prepared by Quacera LLC are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC. To the extent this report discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. Quacera LLC research personnel’s knowledge of legal proceedings in which any Quacera LLC entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to Quacera LLC and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and Quacera LLC does not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third-party websites. Quacera LLC is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with Quacera LLC. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. Quacera LLC is under no obligation to update this report and readers should therefore assume that Quacera LLC will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report. Neither Quacera LLC nor any director, officer or employee Quacera LLC accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.
Posted by
John King on Wed, Jun 12, 2013 @ 12:19 PM
As June unfolds we see uncertainty increasing with every trading session. Our Early Warning System is showing this graphically as we have the seven week momentum turning lower. In our work this is not yet enough to signal a sell and won’t be unless or until the indexes cross the zero momentum line. We have had several periods of faltering confidence in the past few months but none so far have given us reason to change from our long positions.
Four weeks ago, with the S&P just coming off its 1687 high, our QPM Radar™ was still registering positive readings in the mid 90% range. Since then it has fallen to 82.38%. This is by no means cause for alarm but we are alert to the possibility that we could see continued deterioration of the markets’ underlying breadth. It is never a good thing when, even on up days, the advance/decline ratio is negative as has been the case during the past 4 weeks.
From time to time, Quacera will be long or short some or all of the securities mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. If this information is used to enter an investment or take a position, it may be impossible to duplicate the actual signal price shown in the report. Prices are subject to change and therefore results will vary from those tracked in the reports.
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report, or recommended by Quacera LLC, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk. Materials prepared by Quacera LLC are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC. To the extent this report discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. Quacera LLC research personnel’s knowledge of legal proceedings in which any Quacera LLC entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to Quacera LLC and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and Quacera LLC does not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third-party websites. Quacera LLC is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with Quacera LLC. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. Quacera LLC is under no obligation to update this report and readers should therefore assume that Quacera LLC will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report. Neither Quacera LLC nor any director, officer or employee Quacera LLC accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.
Posted by
John King on Wed, Jun 05, 2013 @ 02:44 PM
Over the next few days we will release our Year to date reports on the ETFs and Stocks we follow. The first (below) is the Index ETF sector:
Posted by
John King on Sat, Jun 01, 2013 @ 03:40 PM
“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” Charles Prince, former CEO of Citigroup
The markets continue to respond positively to the Fed pump and May was the seventh straight up month in a row. Despite the cautionary remarks by the Philly Fed CEO Charles Plosser and the warnings contained in the most recent Board minutes, the asset purchases will continue because the Bank is essentially trapped. If they end, or even “taper” these activities stocks will collapse but more importantly the fragility of the economic house of cards we live in will give the lie to the policy’s effectiveness. At Quacera, we rely on our QPM Radar™ do help us determine the best entry & exit points.
We offer Mini Portfolios which are fully hedged and ETF based using the Primary ETF for Index, Currency, Bond, Sector, Precious Metals or Country as our benchmark but we trade the Double Long or Double Inverse funds that correspond to the primary. Below we present the running results we are experiencing for the end of May in our Index portfolio.
We began using the portfolios in mid 2010 but the exhibits here are back tested to the original issue dates for the ultra long & inverse ETFs. We caution that since our system generates signals on a close only basis and we use those prices for our record keeping, individual portfolios will differ somewhat due to the near impossibility that actual trades will duplicate signal prices. We offer these on a fully managed basis, with a $50,000.00 minimum investment per portfolio or by subscription for those who prefer to self-manage. Email johnk@quacera.com or glenn@quacera.com for details.
Posted by
John King on Fri, May 24, 2013 @ 12:04 PM
We are beginning to see some market weakness for the first time this year and our emails are full of questions about whether or not this is the top. It could be but we don’t move until we see the QPM Radar™ signals change and as of yesterday’s close we are still positive. Anticipating what the market will do next has, in our 40 years of investing, always proven to be disastrous. To be sure, there is no perfect way to predict the future but we have striven to build an observation program that we have found to be as accurate as we have ever seen. Below is the current status of the index ETFs we follow. We have also included the signal history of both long and inverse securities.
Posted by
John King on Tue, May 07, 2013 @ 11:04 AM
Each month we compile a report generated by our QPM Radar™ Signal system. It shows not only what returns could have been achieved by a disciplined investor who made transactions based on those signals but also the accuracy of our positive and negative signals as a group. While we use a list that our subscribers request we follow on their behalf, we also incorporate those we use in our asset management business as well and we can add any security with at least 200 days of trading activity into the mix. There is one caveat however: Since our process calculates the signals we get as of the close on any trading day and uses the closing prices, it is not always possible to get the exact price we show in the report if the trade is made at the next opening or on any subsequent trading session. We also caution that past results are not a guarantee of future success and we publish our results in the hope that readers and subscribers can benefit. The QPM Radar™ is the result of our nearly 40 years of investment experience and like any investment process requires a disciplined approach to be successful.
From time to time, Quacera will be long or short some or all of the securities mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. If this information is used to enter an investment or take a position, it may be impossible to duplicate the actual signal price shown in the report. Prices are subject to change and therefore results will vary from those tracked in the reports.
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report, or recommended by Quacera LLC, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk. Materials prepared by Quacera LLC are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC. To the extent this report discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. Quacera LLC research personnel’s knowledge of legal proceedings in which any Quacera LLC entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to Quacera LLC and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and Quacera LLC does not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third-party websites. Quacera LLC is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with Quacera LLC. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. Quacera LLC is under no obligation to update this report and readers should therefore assume that Quacera LLC will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report. Neither Quacera LLC nor any director, officer or employee Quacera LLC accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.
Posted by
John King on Mon, May 06, 2013 @ 12:37 PM
Last week we saw the latest in the Executive Branch manipulation of data designed to hype markets and make its creators feel better about themselves. The headline, of course, was that unemployment is falling because the BLS reported that 165,000 net new jobs were created last month. Beneath the fold was the real story. Government minions are working feverishly to make a silk purse out of the sow’s ear of our current economy. One way to do that is to manipulate how they count. This leads us to the Voluntary & Involuntary part time jobs section of the report. That kind of low wage, non-benefit paying employment entails a worker getting 29 hours or less upon which to support him or herself. There were 441,000 of those jobs added to the labor force in April which means that in actuality 276,000 full timers were laid off in the month. Next we look into how the unemployment rate is calculated. The BLS uses as its denominator the number of workers "still in the labor force" i.e., the percentage over the age of 16 who are working or available for work, aka the Participation Rate. This figure is divided into the number of reported unemployed to get us the monthly unemployment rate. The problem here is that the number in the participation rate has fallen from 66.3% to 63.3% since the Fed finally woke up to the housing bubble. That 3% represents well over 4 million of our fellow citizens who are no longer counted in the data and if they were, would show that the actual percentage "unemployed" in the economy is 11.4%.
With the advent of High Frequency Trading, entire systems have been designed to take headlines and key words as evidence of market information upon which the computers make buy & sell decisions. AP & Twitter were victims of such folly last week when a hacker decided to add a few key words of his own resulting in a flash crash of 130 points in a very few minutes. What is to prevent this kind of thing from happening on a massive scale? Nothing. The regulators are busy writing thousands of pages to fill in the blanks of Dodd-Frank or the UnAffordable Care Act so paying attention to the actual markets is of secondary concern, if at all. Besides, so far the algorithm generated trading has all been on the buy side, which aids in furthering the myth they hope to achieve. But when things change, as they always do, there will be a change in the computerized interpretation of the headlines and all of the computers might wind up on the sell side.
The real risk however, is that those at the top, whose power relies on the faith in them that comes from the electorate, also have to have accurate data and truthful statistics to prevent them making the wrong political move. That HFT can move markets so easily is an indication that the faith needed is falling as fast as the participation rate and it won’t be long before the number of non-computerized market participants falls too far. If that happens we will see the downside of these clever schemes coming together in a perfect storm that could destroy the markets and our economy.
It is becoming more important every day that those of us, who make our living in the real world, make certain that we pay close attention to the market data in the effort to avoid the scenario portrayed above. The one piece of information that cannot be converted into the gibberish flowing from officialdom and its media cronies is market momentum which determines trend and ultimately price. Keeping a close watch on facts is the key to investment survival.
The report below shows that despite the jubilance over recent record new highs, the markets trends are not much changed. Whether or not this continues to be the case, we will be monitoring the strength of market activity to make sure that, if or when the current exuberance changes to gloom, our clients will be safely away from the resulting disaster.
From time to time, Quacera will be long or short some or all of the securities mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. If this information is used to enter an investment or take a position, it may be impossible to duplicate the actual signal price shown in the report. Prices are subject to change and therefore results will vary from those tracked in the reports.
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report, or recommended by Quacera LLC, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk. Materials prepared by Quacera LLC are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC. To the extent this report discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. Quacera LLC research personnel’s knowledge of legal proceedings in which any Quacera LLC entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to Quacera LLC and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and Quacera LLC does not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third-party websites. Quacera LLC is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with Quacera LLC. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. Quacera LLC is under no obligation to update this report and readers should therefore assume that Quacera LLC will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report. Neither Quacera LLC nor any director, officer or employee Quacera LLC accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.
Posted by
John King on Mon, Apr 29, 2013 @ 10:28 AM
The Fed and Treasury are using the printing press in an attempt to keep prices up which they believe will keep the economy from falling into depression. For its part the Fed is buying MBS & Treasuries from the banks, which in turn receive FedBucks to increase their reserves. The purpose of this game is to allow the banks to lend. The flaw is that there are fewer borrowers than in pre-2008 America because the whole economy then was built on debt bloated over-capacity. Too many houses, shopping malls and car dealerships, etc. that existed only because of the over stimulated economy that had been created by the previous Fed stimulation excursions. So where has this gotten us? On its way to $4 Trillion, the Feds balance sheet is loaded with assets it says it can just allow to run off if inflation gets out of control. The Treasury has forced our National Debt to increase by almost 45% since 2008 in the same quest. And prices or employment or any other measure by which these agencies want to measure their success, have failed. Japan has been trying this with similar success since 1990 and in its desperation has now entered what we believe will be the final phase of its Yen destruction and the demise of its economy. For our part, we only react to our signals and the spreadsheet below shows the only real thing that measures the success or failure of current policy – price.
From time to time, Quacera will be long or short some or all of the securities mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. If this information is used to enter an investment or take a position, it may be impossible to duplicate the actual signal price shown in the report. Prices are subject to change and therefore results will vary from those tracked in the reports.
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report, or recommended by Quacera LLC, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk. Materials prepared by Quacera LLC are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC. To the extent this report discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. Quacera LLC research personnel’s knowledge of legal proceedings in which any Quacera LLC entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to Quacera LLC and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and Quacera LLC does not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third-party websites. Quacera LLC is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with Quacera LLC. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. Quacera LLC is under no obligation to update this report and readers should therefore assume that Quacera LLC will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report. Neither Quacera LLC nor any director, officer or employee Quacera LLC accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.
Posted by
John King on Tue, Apr 23, 2013 @ 11:48 AM
Our recent theme for the markets has been that it appears the deflation trade is in control. Much has been made about the latest drop in gold as we made the negative call on the barbarous relic in December and have been seeing our signals going negative on most of the other commodities as far back as last August. Today, Goldman Sachs came out with a negative call on commodities and changed its mind on gold, going from negative to neutral. It is comforting to see a major player coming to conclusions that our system recognized weeks or months ago and with the power GS commands in the trading arena, this could lead to more rapid deterioration in the sector. How long the selling strength remains in force is anybody’s guess. We prefer to use the proprietary Early Warning tools we have developed to warn us when those changes are occurring.
From time to time, Quacera will be long or short some or all of the securities mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. If this information is used to enter an investment or take a position, it may be impossible to duplicate the actual signal price shown in the report. Prices are subject to change and therefore results will vary from those tracked in the reports.
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report, or recommended by Quacera LLC, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk. Materials prepared by Quacera LLC are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC. To the extent this report discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. Quacera LLC research personnel’s knowledge of legal proceedings in which any Quacera LLC entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to Quacera LLC and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and Quacera LLC does not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third-party websites. Quacera LLC is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with Quacera LLC. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. Quacera LLC is under no obligation to update this report and readers should therefore assume that Quacera LLC will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report. Neither Quacera LLC nor any director, officer or employee Quacera LLC accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.
Posted by
John King on Wed, Apr 10, 2013 @ 11:49 AM
The headline a few minutes ago on Yahoo News was "Goldman Sachs Says It's Time to Short Gold". Reading the article, one who has paid no attention to the markets might consider this revelation from the great & wonderful GS as the trigger to make a bold move. The article relates that the analyst at Goldman thinks $1450 will be the bottom for the metal and longs should finally exit forthwith.
We have no comment on the call except to ask where Goldman and their clients have been for the past 4 months? Our system gave us a sell on GLD on 14 December, 2012 & the inverse Gold ETF, GLL, went positive on 18, December. Moreover, our clients were advised to sell SLV on February 14 and buy ZSL on the 15th of that month.
It is gratifying to know that our signals have finally been confirmed by arguably the largest sell side broker and advisor to the elite of the financial community. We are glad they could join us.
We don't purport to know, as they seem to, what the price will be when or if precious metals reverse course but we expect our process will again discover such an event well before GS does.
From time to time, Quacera will be long or short some or all of the securities mentioned in this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this report. If this information is used to enter an investment or take a position, it may be impossible to duplicate the actual signal price shown in the report. Prices are subject to change and therefore results will vary from those tracked in the reports.
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report, or recommended by Quacera LLC, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk. Materials prepared by Quacera LLC are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC. To the extent this report discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. Quacera LLC research personnel’s knowledge of legal proceedings in which any Quacera LLC entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Quacera LLC in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to Quacera LLC and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and Quacera LLC does not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third-party websites. Quacera LLC is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with Quacera LLC. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. Quacera LLC is under no obligation to update this report and readers should therefore assume that Quacera LLC will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report. Neither Quacera LLC nor any director, officer or employee Quacera LLC accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents.